Oil Crude prices rebound above $50 U.S. dollars per barrel, but then declined again on Monday local time, because traders consider the possibility of a decrease in OPEC production this weekend and continued economic turmoil. In New York, light sweet crude oil for January delivery ended at 44.51 U.S. dollars per barrel, down 1.77 U.S. dollars from the closing price Friday. Original oil prices rebound to be 50.05 U.S. dollars per barrel, the highest level since 1 December.

In London, Brent crude North Sea for January delivery picked up to the highest level of 49.96 U.S. dollars per barrel, also the highest peak in the last two weeks, but back off a dogged 44.60 U.S. dollars per barrel, down 1.81 dollars U.S..

The State Oil Organization (OPEC) will be meeting Wednesday, in Oran, Algeria, and is estimated to trim production again to raise the price of oil down by the oppressive peak of global economic concerns.

OPEC Secretary General Abdalla Salem El-Badri said to the reporter right in Oran on Monday, that he will consider the possibility of “a very large decrease” in production of crude oil, adding that “the market the excess supply of oil.” “This morning they (the price) is based on the many announcements by OPEC that the production of a substantial reduction on Wednesday,” said Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates.

“But honesty after that, people continue to see demand from the equation,” he said. “The demand and the economic situation throughout the world continue to push oil prices down.” Oil prices have fallen about two-thirds the number since the highest price reached a record above 147 U.S. dollars five months ago, because of recession in many countries.

Some experts also have questioned whether OPEC members will be obedient to reduce their oil production. “And then of course the market to obtain all of dizziness proposal cutting, the big question today whether there will be fulfilled,” said Phil Flynn of Alaron Trading Corporation.

The oil market is also considering the possibility that the White House will provide some help to the U.S. automotive sector are difficulties, the dealers said.

Victor Shum, energy analyst from consultants Purvin and Gertz, said “oil prices rise again because there are expectations that the U.S. automotive will be saved by the White House.” International Energy Agency (IEA) on Thursday and said the government estimates global oil demand will fall this year for the first time since 1983.

The price of crude oil plunged on Friday, local time, after a bailout plan for the automotive industry so that the U.S. failed to heighten concern about slowing down on demand due to the global financial crisis bites. As reported by AFP, light sweet crude oil for January delivery fell 1.70 U.S. dollars to be closed at 46.28 U.S. dollars per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In the Intercontinental Exchange, London, Brent crude North Sea for January delivery plunged 98 cents on a steady 46.41 U.S. dollars per barrel.

Oil price rebound has been more than 10 percent on Thursday, amid signals that OPEC and Russia will cooperate next week in the reduction of production to support the increase of oil prices plunged. “At first, the price of commodities including oil to rally, but then forced by crisis of confidence in the middle of the failure of the U.S. automotive bailout plan,” said analyst John Kilduff of MF Global.

A bailout plan by 14 billion U.S. dollars to save the U.S. automotive industry is sick, failed in the U.S. Senate on Thursday, increasing the prospect bankruptcy General Motors and Chrysler, which have millions of workers. The burden of this global stock market Friday, and press the switch commodity prices.
“Crude Oil to be the decrease in the stock market on Friday,” said Nimit wine, a broker Sucden Analyst Company. “Reluctance to take risks created the automotive industry bailout after the failure.”

The State Oil Organization (OPEC) is estimated to announce the cutting of production at a meeting next Wednesday in an effort to encourage the increase of prices that have fallen from new record high above 147 U.S. dollars in July. OPEC, which produces 40 percent crude oil world, has been called producer countries of non-OPEC oil to participate in reducing production to keep oil prices decline sharply. Russia on Thursday is ready to join with OPEC to keep crude oil prices fall and will become part of the oil cartel if Moscow became interested members. Russian non-OPEC members, but ranked equal with Saudi Arabia, de facto cartel leaders, as the world’s largest oil exporter.

“Failure bailout will increase automotive specter of recession in depth because it will also impact on the network automotive supplier industry,” said Kilduff. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Thursday, project global oil demand will fall this year and is the first time in half a century because slowing down of economy growth in the world. “Demand for oil is now estimated to global contraction in 2008 for the first time since 1983, has 0.2 million DSL, with the total (daily demand) this year revised down 350,000 to be 85.8 million DSL BPH,” said the IEA report in the latest oil market.

A week ago, the price of oil has fallen below 40 U.S. dollars, the lowest level in four years, as more bad than expected labor data in the United States that improve the prospects decrease demand more energy furious. Oil prices in the early 2008 level of 100 penetrate the U.S. dollar for the first time, and as demand picked up in a large amount of energy from China and India, plus the political chaos main crude oil exporter, namely Iran and Nigeria.

After made new record high $147 USD /barrel in July 2008, oil price has been declined more than 100 percent. Premium price is lowest in last 3 months in America after cut 53 cent. Oil price is predicted will go down below $40 USD/barrel as Global Financial Crisis result. Oil shipping contract in New York Mercantile Exchange show the opposite after run high after closed in $49.93 USD/barrel higher than before $48.25 USD/barrel.

In Asia, Oil price has no power also. January shipping for light sweet oil is closed at $48.47/barrel, or declined 95 cent yesterday afternoon in Singapore. Merchant claims and scare about Global recession because demand for energy is running low.

December Shipping, Oil price goes rise to level $49.62 after sit lowest price since 18 may 2005, $48.50 USD/barrel. As we know, Oil price declined to fantastic price after running record high (upper $100USD/barrel). United State Government has cut premium price to follow the lowering on oil crude price. Analysts then said to predict that Oil price contract shipping will go down below $40 USD/barrel.
Fantastic declining as resulted of Global crisis where demand from business (read Industry) declined in high percentage. To anticipate over supply (over supply has positive correlation to reduce oil price), OPEC might decide to cut their oil crude quota in near. Last month, OPEC had cut their supply with declined their quota to 1.5 million barrel/day. When OPEC start to cut their supply? Analysts predict OPEC will do it in December next month. So far, OPEC supplies 40 percent of total Global demand and to make OPEC as important rule in pricing manipulated.

OPEC tries to prevent the worst price

In 19 November 2008, OPEC decided to consolidate with NON OPEC Countries in order to stabilize oil price-working together. They will meet in Cairo in November, IRNA reported. The main agenda are to talk about the current oil price condition and try to make plan in preventing oil price to worst. According to OPEC Staff, one of their solutions (decision) is walking together in oil market management. They must stick together to keep fairly oil price and that is very important move.
IRNA reported that Nozari has contacted Russian Ministry of Energy Sergey Shmatko last week. Russia takes 10 percent of total oil production, and OPEC really hopes that Russian will agree with them, walking together with OPEC to manage oil market. As one of the biggest NON-OPEC supplier has sent their staff as observer countries in OPEC submit meeting in September last two month

After running high, Oil crude price now is lower than $80 per barrel. Amazing right! Why Oil crude price decline very significantly? Why? Congress had question to American Giant Oil Company about how much the real price for oil crude price, How much US to produce 1 barrel? And the answer was very surprising, lower than $50 required for one 1 barrel. So why the price is too high (upper $100 per barrel)? The answer is very simple, Broker, Investor and speculator make it. They have power to increase or decrease oil crude price based on economic indicator. (Middle East Politic Situation, America Financial Condition, Others Legal data from Biggest Countries-rich countries).

Americans are still down with their biggest problem; Credit Crunch-Mortgage Crisis and now after the very long time lag, they enjoy the bad impact. Many employers are fired, Lower Demand on Import, Credit Crisis, Many Home owners have lost and more.
Is this case has positive correlation with decrease on Oil Price? Yup! For every economic situation has impact to global economic. When Americans down with their crisis, Our Local TV said, Which countries then buy Chinese Product and which countries will buy our products (Indonesian Product)??
Crisis in America has multidimensional effect. European, Japanese, Chinese and development countries also get the impact, the big impact. Many Central Bank fight force to cut their interest rate to avoid the worst. Russian and Indonesia suspended their stock market to avoid naughty investor and broker to do illegal transaction or to make it worst.

Producers from exporting countries (mostly come from development countries) reduce their production because of many unsold goods. In other hand they must pay salary, pay $ debt and monthly and daily cost. So if production is lower, it means demand on oil for production is also less than normal condition (keep in mind than demand for oil price for production sector take bigger portion than household sectors).
If Chinese producers demand less on oil price, Indonesia, and ASIA, and all industry countries, Oil price will lower itself because economic theory said on Demand Law (if demand less, positive correlation will decrease the price–cateris paribus).
So in Stock Market or Oil market, Demand for Next month shipping decrease while the price also decrease.

How long the cheaper oil price will hold and goes? If Americans condition is normal, does the oil price will run higher again? OPEC doesn’t agree if oil price less than $70 per barrel. OPEC will does necessary action to increase the oil price to fair price but how much the price? I don’t know exactly. We will wait.

Now, When oil crude price runs cheaper, why premium oil, gasoline price is higher? an issue took the suggestion to government to decrease the oil price. But till today, most government said that they wait for best time and condition; after analysis economic indicators in short and long term.

Low against major currencies, conflict on middle east and worried about oil stock and disturbing oil supply in Nigeria have been pushing Oil price upper $138 per barrel on Tuesday. The current price closes to new record high made on last week. Markets are worrying with King Abdullah statement last Sunday that they will increase their barrel per day haven’t fulfill world stock. Actually Arabians have promised that his country produces more if available supply less than demand but so far the promise isn’t working.

Before that, King Abdullah claimed that running high on oil price is caused by traders and investors in market. King Abdullah said that they have increased their production and they did nothing when take profit taken investors still running.

Light sweet oil on august shipping rises from 1.30 to $138.04 level in New York Mercantile Exchange or close to evening trading season in European. On Sunday shipping, the contract risen $1.38 and closed at $136.74 per barrel. The increasing has been creating new record high on oil price last week, around $139.89 per barrel.