Posts tagged ‘Exporter’

Last two week, when closing weekend, Rupiah was around Rp.9250 per USD. But last weekend closing time, Rupiah had fallen into Rp.9600 per USD. And now Rupiah is 9450 per USD (taken from KlikBca.com).

Not only Rupiah declined significantly against USD, major currencies EURO, POUND, YEN Japan and Swiss Franc also declined against USD. Let us see the fact. Why USD flies the flag. What’s going on with USD?

We look the past, 4 months before when Credit Crunch attacked American Financial Market and Hot Money from Japan attacked Indonesia and Pound, and USD had fallen to the worst and makes its new record low against EURO and Pound.

Economic Theory can explain this situation. Trade-off between two countries to make economic theory goes well. If Japan YEN won against Dollar, it means Japanese spend less YEN to get $1. In International trade (between Japan and America), Japanese prefer American Product because of cheaper, so Japanese will consume (import) American products.

In other hand, declined on YEN makes American gets more YEN for Trade. American gets surplus (because Japanese products is expensive) and Japanese gets deficit. If the condition goes in long term, Americans will hold Many YEN and Japanese has loss their YEN.

Inside America, Americans have more money and as result Inflation raises there. Inflation rises because of Higher of money supply. To avoid it problems, construction money supply from FED is taken, Producer cut their Product and Surplus (Over supply) must be used to buy foreign products, so Americans start to buy Japanese product to put the inflation down.

In my opinion, the theory works well so far if there are no external error destroys the theory. Economic theory comes from assumption so people (even the economists) believe that Economic theory is very restrict and far from realize. But generally we will get some information from the theory that Declined USD in the past and the rise USD in present tries to inform us that Appreciation or Depreciation, Inflation or Deflation, Recession or Growth is a cycle of life. Sometimes you are down and sometimes you are the top.

The economic theory is disturbed by external error, let us say them Broker or Investor in Stock and Money Market. They are destroyer. Declined on USD in generally is a process, but Brokers making it run faster and the panic is spread to all sectors.

Indonesian Reserve Bank (Bank Indonesia) had taken some necessary actions to keep the Rupiah around upper than Rp.9500 per USD. But Bank Indonesia couldn’t win against the panic cause by Brokers. When Rupiah declined on USD, who (which) people gain the benefits? Declined on Foreign Currencies makes Exporters gain more Rupiahs, especially Oil and Gas, Local product (higher than 75 percent importer material) such as faming, wood, handicraft and more. But in modern world, Many people are depended on importation products so when Rupiah declines on USD, Cities people go to crazy. Real money also decline.

 To Be Continued……………..

Chairman of GAPPINDO said that import tariff from shrimp (lobster) item to Japan is ZERO, decline from 1 percent. The free tariff is realized based from the deal between Indonesia and Japan. Indonesian exporters are happy now because free tariff increase their profit and this zero tariff indicates that international trade between ASEAN and outside countries has been realized.

Our shrimp is Zero percent but a problem isn’t clear. Shrimp from Indonesia must wait for 3 days for checking (about the international standard, free from virus, bacteria and other point). This case isn’t happened to Thailand Shrimp. Thailand Shrimp doesn’t waiting for 3 days because they get privilege access; their shrimp is directly entered without procedurals checking as happened on Indonesian Shrimp. Read more »

Oil Supply is running low, We must to think about it!

China’s resurrection has been establishing since ten years ago. Now, China woke up as a new wild tiger and tries to eat all his victims. China followed his neighbor Japan; imitate Japan strategies to be Modern Country, Top industry and Asia Leader in Economic, Asia Tigers.

Now, China’s products have been spread to all countries; America, Japan, European, Asia and Indonesia. The China Resurrection made all rich countries scare because China’s products are very competitive in pricing.

Besides making industrial countries scare, Rich Countries look China as a potential investment field. Japan has been changing his face to China. Japan declined his Investment in East Asia (ASEAN) and increases his money in China.

While many new industries move to China, demand on oil also increases. Without investment (foreign direct investment in china), demand on oil is still high because China has two billions people. Read more »