Rupiah decline agaisnt USD

Last week, Indonesian Rupiah was 9550/USD, then Monday opening October 6th, Rupiah declined significantly at 9600/USD. Yesterday is 9700/USD and now is 9625/USD (data taken from Others currencies are also attacked by the American crisis storm. Why the storm is too scary?
To answer the question why Rupiah declined significantly, my friend put nice analysis and here it is. The analysis is based to economic theory and analysis.

When American down to financial crisis, mortgage and bad credit, it means America is going to recession. Recession means lower demand and supply from American, the impact is Indonesian export also declined because lower demand from America. This case also attack others exporter countries. Supply raises and demand is fixing or lower, so production sectors react through declined their output. Over supply created and puss higher inflation (inflation because over supply).

Second analysis. American down to crisis, so USD also depreciates with others countries, so Investors decide to sell USD. In Indonesia, there are $50 million, spread in Stock, government obligation and short investment. Government fight force to hold the USD escape outside, so Government and Indonesian Reserve Bank must create a gift for Investors so they still happy in Indonesia, enjoy the gain, benefits by hold USD.

Simple logic, Indonesian Government will say to USD Investors, Please do not go away, Investors, we will pay more Rupiah more your One USD, Ok? The sound is good, investors said. With powerful instrument role by Indonesian Reserve Bank, they declined Rupiah. Nice job Sir.Budiono.
Related Analysis. People avoid USD because of depreciation. USD becomes scarce in market and most of Indonesian business sectors need USD for monthly loan payment, international payment, and so high demand will push USD become more expensive.

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